Things I am interested in…

These are my links for July 2nd:

• Influenza – Immunisation & Vaccination Info, NSIG New Zealand
• Public Health Surveillance
• Git – Fast Version Control System
• Secure source code hosting and collaborative development – GitHub
• How to Make a Brazilian Bikini Photo Gallery With Drupal and AJAX | Webmaster Tips
• drupaltherapy.com | Helping you help yourself
• Youthinmind Homepage
• Sam Ruby: OpenID for non-SuperUsers
• OpenID
• WordPress Plugin Database
• A List Apart: A List Apart
• Cariboo Baby Furniture – Home
• Lifehacker – Five Best Free System Restore Tools – Disk image
• GParted — Live CD/USB/PXE/HD
• How to Dual Boot Windows 7
• What Does Your Credit-Card Company Know About You? – NYTimes.com
• UltraSurf
• Freegate | Dynamic Internet Technology
• Influenza Statistics
• WHO | Influenza (Seasonal)
• ECDC – Influenza
• Apple – Support – New Zealand

As of 2100 yesterday (1 July, 2009) New Zealand had 711 confirmed cases of swine flu (H1N1 Influenza A).  This was 124 more cases than the previous reporting to the WHO only two days earlier.

This represent a rise in confirmed cases of 10% per day, or nearly double the number in a week (~96% increase).

If the number infected were to continue rising at this rate then in approximately 3 months every single person in New Zealand (4.18 million people) would have caught it (exponential growth is spooky like that)!

Thankfully, disease spread statistics are not like that – the European CDC estimates are that ~25% of a population will contract a novel strain of influenza (such as swine flu).  The rate of increase worldwide is only ~4% per day (40% per week).  However, it does give pause for sober reflection.

At present the mortality of swine flu is ~4 deaths per 1000 who get it.  Again, using the NZ population as a model, if we all get it then ~16000 people will die from it.  If only a quarter, then 4000 people.  And that doesn't take into account the disruption from morbidity – people off sick from work and the like.

That ends the doom and gloom sermon for the day…

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Ha ha ha!

Amusing cartoon, courtesy of MacDoctor:
http://www.macdoctor.co.nz/?p=2460

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See and download the full gallery on posterous

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http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090623/REVIEWS/906239997

Posted via email from attobrute’s posterous