Swine flu – NZ cases
2 07 2009As of 2100 yesterday (1 July, 2009) New Zealand had 711 confirmed cases of swine flu (H1N1 Influenza A). This was 124 more cases than the previous reporting to the WHO only two days earlier.
This represent a rise in confirmed cases of 10% per day, or nearly double the number in a week (~96% increase).
If the number infected were to continue rising at this rate then in approximately 3 months every single person in New Zealand (4.18 million people) would have caught it (exponential growth is spooky like that)!
Thankfully, disease spread statistics are not like that – the European CDC estimates are that ~25% of a population will contract a novel strain of influenza (such as swine flu). The rate of increase worldwide is only ~4% per day (40% per week). However, it does give pause for sober reflection.
At present the mortality of swine flu is ~4 deaths per 1000 who get it. Again, using the NZ population as a model, if we all get it then ~16000 people will die from it. If only a quarter, then 4000 people. And that doesn't take into account the disruption from morbidity – people off sick from work and the like.
That ends the doom and gloom sermon for the day…
