Andrew Turbott's personal blog
Archive for July 2, 2009
My del.icio.us bookmarks for July 2nd
Jul 2nd
These are my links for July 2nd:
- Influenza – Immunisation & Vaccination Info, NSIG New Zealand
- Public Health Surveillance
- Git – Fast Version Control System
- Secure source code hosting and collaborative development – GitHub
- How to Make a Brazilian Bikini Photo Gallery With Drupal and AJAX | Webmaster Tips
- drupaltherapy.com | Helping you help yourself
- Youthinmind Homepage
- Sam Ruby: OpenID for non-SuperUsers
- OpenID
- WordPress Plugin Database
- A List Apart: A List Apart
- Cariboo Baby Furniture – Home
- Lifehacker – Five Best Free System Restore Tools – Disk image
- GParted — Live CD/USB/PXE/HD
- How to Dual Boot Windows 7
- What Does Your Credit-Card Company Know About You? – NYTimes.com
- UltraSurf
- Freegate | Dynamic Internet Technology
- Influenza Statistics
- WHO | Influenza (Seasonal)
- ECDC – Influenza
- Apple – Support – New Zealand
turbott.net – version 2
Jul 2nd
Any Turbotts in the audience?!
Check out the new, revised turbott.net for all your Turbott needs…
Posted via email from attobrute’s posterous
NZ seasonal flu mortality/morbidity
Jul 2nd
And finally, yet another quote from the same report:
The highest number of ILI related deaths (94) in New Zealand was recorded in 1996 during an A(H3N2) epidemic. The highest number of hospitalisations (591) was recorded in 2003 during an A(H3N2) predominant season.
I think that's enough about swine flu for the moment!…
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Seasonal flu vs Swine flu – NZ
Jul 2nd
For comparison to my previous post, here is a quote from Influenza in New Zealand 2008
During the 2008 winter season, 3 945 consultations for influenza-like illness (ILI) were reported from a national sentinel network of 85 general practices. It is estimated that ILI resulting in a visit to a general practitioner affected over 47 697 New Zealanders (1.2% of total population) during the season, compared with an estimated 32 771 in 2007.
Posted via email from attobrute’s posterous
Swine flu – NZ cases
Jul 2nd
As of 2100 yesterday (1 July, 2009) New Zealand had 711 confirmed cases of swine flu (H1N1 Influenza A). This was 124 more cases than the previous reporting to the WHO only two days earlier.
This represent a rise in confirmed cases of 10% per day, or nearly double the number in a week (~96% increase).
If the number infected were to continue rising at this rate then in approximately 3 months every single person in New Zealand (4.18 million people) would have caught it (exponential growth is spooky like that)!
Thankfully, disease spread statistics are not like that – the European CDC estimates are that ~25% of a population will contract a novel strain of influenza (such as swine flu). The rate of increase worldwide is only ~4% per day (40% per week). However, it does give pause for sober reflection.
At present the mortality of swine flu is ~4 deaths per 1000 who get it. Again, using the NZ population as a model, if we all get it then ~16000 people will die from it. If only a quarter, then 4000 people. And that doesn't take into account the disruption from morbidity – people off sick from work and the like.
That ends the doom and gloom sermon for the day…
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